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Futurist predicted attack on towers seven years before 9/11
So some high-fallutin' futurist is coming to Norfolk next Monday to talk about the future. Why should Norfolk and area residents take stock in what he has to say?
Perhaps because this same futurist predicted the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, seven years before they happened.
Specifically, he predicted that Muslim extremists would, at some point, execute a second attack on the World Trade Center towers in New York City and that there would be "simultaneous assaults on separate targets." He also predicted the deliberate crash of an airline into the Pentagon.
Shouldn't that push his credibility up quite a bit?
Dr. Marv Cetron doesn't study a crystal ball, a deck of cards or the alignment of the moon and the stars when forecasting the future.
Instead, Cetron, who has a doctorate in research and development from American University, consults experts and other forecasters and studies trends before predicting the future.
He's been identified by U.S. News and World Report magazine as one of the nation's leading futurists, which is why organizers of the Visioning 2026 project in Norfolk and Madison County have asked Cetron for his help in envisioning the area's future.
In the early 1990s, the assistant U.S. secretary of defense for special operations and low-intensity conflict asked Cetron to study terrorism and present a report at the annual Defense Worldwide Combating Terrorism Conference.
"The common wisdom then held that terrorism was quickly becoming obsolete . . . . because attacks cost (the countries) more than any benefit was worth," Cetron said in a telephone interview with the Daily News from his offices in Washington, D.C.
Back then, for example, Libya had been subjected to embargoes and a ban on buying some oil equipment because that nation sponsored the Lockerbie bombing, he said. And the rest of the world was impatient with Iraq for invading Kuwait.
But Cetron said he saw things differently.
In his report, Cetron predicted that terrorism would become "more common, not less," and would be conducted by "Muslim extremists who hated the West and America in particular."
The study - named "Terror 2000: The Future Face of Terrorism" - did more than tell the world to watch out for more attacks. It also made specific recommendations for combating terrorism.
For example, it suggested improved intelligence collection and rebuilding the thinktanks that were abandoned after the Civil War.
Unfortunately, the study was shelved, Cetron said, by Barbara Bodine, who was the acting coordinator for counter-terrorism at the time. She feared it would damage U.S. relationships with Middle East oil-producing countries because it predicted a growth in terrorism by radical Muslims.
Consequently, it was never shared with the president, his Cabinet members of members of Congress.
Had it been released, Cetron said he believes the events of 9/11 could have been avoided.
Now, despite the Western world's efforts to curb terrorism, Cetron said matters are far from being resolved.
For example, as many as 30,000 foreign fighters are believed to have moved into Iraq, where they are gaining experience that will serve them in campaigns against the United States, he said. And schools around the world funded by Saudi Arabia are teaching "anti-Western messages."
Plus, Cetron said he is sure that, in time, elite terrorists will have more than plastic explosives to make their point. "They will have nuclear weapons," he said.
Cetron also predicts that al-Qaida or its spin-offs may soon take over countries where the government is weak. Some of those, he said, include Iran, Iraq, Sudan, Syria, Pakistan and Afghanistan.
So what does the United States and its allies do?
In a report presented last March to ASIS International (an organization for security professionals), Cetron made these suggestions:
Address the issue of Pakistan possessing nuclear weapons and Iran trying to acquire them.
Secure the nuclear material now abandoned around the world, including 340 metric tons in Russia.
n Keep track of nuclear scientists in the Muslim world.
Discourage Saudi Arabia from spreading an anti-American message.
"This report is only a small first step in developing counterterrorist strategies for the future. Yet it is important for what it represents: the beginning of a long and difficult process by which we may avoid the extreme measures considered. This is one effort that absolutely must succeed. The alternative is too horrifying to accept," he said.
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