Focus groups to be formed

By KENT WARNEKE

Wednesday, November 01, 2006

The next stage of the Visioning 2026 process will begin next week in Norfolk.

Jennifer Adams, coordinator of the program for the Norfolk Area Chamber of Commerce, said a number of focus groups would be formed to allow Norfolk and Madison County residents to become involved in the development of practical, tangible ideas for the future that they would like to see explored.

The focus groups will meet at various times to discuss education, energy, health care, economic development, tourism/recreation, technology and workforce/demographic issues.

The information generated from the focus groups will be the impetus for the development of a list of ideas, projects and trends that will be evaluated through citizen polls, which is also a part of Visioning 2026, Adams said.

Visioning 2026 is a communitywide project envisioned by the partnership of the Daily News along with the City of Norfolk, Madison County, Northeast Community College, the Norfolk Area Chamber of Commerce, the Norfolk Public Schools and the Leadership Norfolk program.

The ultimate goal of the program is to allow citizens to help shape the future of Norfolk and Madison County by 2026.

The process began earlier this year when several dialogue groups were formed to help participants learn of national and global trends that could affect Northeast Nebraska in the future.

In September, nationally known futurist Marv Cetron was brought to Norfolk as part of Visioning 2026 to allow local and area residents to hear his take on those trends and which ones the Norfolk area might want to try to capitalize on.

The focus groups now are the next important step in the process, Adams said.

Any Norfolkans or Madison County residents who would like to participate in the focus groups can do so by contacting Pam Carlson at the chamber of commerce at 371-4862 or go online to www.visioning2026.com. More information about Visioning 2026 also is available at that Web site.

But there are people in the world who would take advantage of such an opportunity.

In fact, more than 200 people in Barcelona, Spain, plunked down $200 to have an RFID chip injected in their left shoulder so they could be quickly identified as members of the Baja Club.

So, what is an RFID tag and why might it be important to the future of Norfolk and Madison County?

RFID stands for Radio Frequency Identification. An RFID tag is part computer chip and part radio transmitter that can store information and respond to queries from an RFID transmitter.

Dr. Marv Cetron, president of Forecasters International, said he thinks Norfolk would be a logical place to manufacture RFID tags.

Cetron, a Washington, D.C.,-based futurist, is helping organizers of the Visioning 2026 project - which involves the City of Norfolk, Madison County, Northeast Community College and the Norfolk Public Schools - identify trends, challenges and strategies to better prepare Norfolk and Madison County for the future.

RFID tags have many more practical applications than identifying members of a club. And, although they sound like something from "Star Wars," the technology has been around for years.

In fact, the military used them during World War II to distinguish their airplanes from enemy planes, Cetron said.

Plus, Cetron said, they've been used for years in the livestock industry to help keep track of cattle destined to become part of the food supply.

And the applications are endless.

For instance, manufacturers can track products from assembly line to delivery, and customers can scan an incoming pallet to make sure each item that is supposed to be included, is included. Wal-Mart, for example, already requires some of its suppliers to use RFID tags on its products.

Workers who are allowed access to sensitive areas can be tagged for identification purposes.

Hotels can use RFID tags as room keys that can be reprogrammed each time the room is rented. The tags could also be used to track the guest's bill for meals, movies and other items.

Tags can be used to monitor the temperature and condition of food being shipped around the world.

Cetron said a plane could fly over a cargo ship, read what's in the boxes and transfer the information to the bridge of the ship or to another site.

And starting next month, RFID tags will placed on passports.

But Cetron said there are still bugs that need to be worked out of the technology.

For example, there currently is no global standard for the system, which means one company's tags may not work with another company's scanners.

And the data in the tag can be accessed and even changed by a knowledgeable hacker.

But the real obstacle, he said, is cost.

"Fortunately, the cost . . . is dropping rapidly," he added. "Passive tags are expected to reach 6 cents each by 2010 and just one cent per tag by 2015. At those prices, RFID becomes very attractive."

While Cetron acknowledges that not all of the bugs have been worked out of the RFID tags and systems, he believes their "future is bright."

In fact, he said one market research firm estimates that 33 billion RFID tags will be manufactured in the United States by 2010, which is up from just 1.3 billion in 2005.

Another firm estimates that the market for RFID tags and readers will grow from $2.7 billion in 2005 to $26 billion in 2016.

One of the biggest obstacles to meeting those numbers, Cetron said, is the lack of people who know how to make the products.

Which opens a window of opportunity for Norfolk and Madison County.

"Look for a specific area - such as applications for cattle - and focus on that initially. That gets you a leg up on the industry," he said.

Perhaps because this same futurist predicted the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, seven years before they happened.

Specifically, he predicted that Muslim extremists would, at some point, execute a second attack on the World Trade Center towers in New York City and that there would be "simultaneous assaults on separate targets." He also predicted the deliberate crash of an airline into the Pentagon.

Shouldn't that push his credibility up quite a bit?

Dr. Marv Cetron doesn't study a crystal ball, a deck of cards or the alignment of the moon and the stars when forecasting the future.

Instead, Cetron, who has a doctorate in research and development from American University, consults experts and other forecasters and studies trends before predicting the future.

He's been identified by U.S. News and World Report magazine as one of the nation's leading futurists, which is why organizers of the Visioning 2026 project in Norfolk and Madison County have asked Cetron for his help in envisioning the area's future.

In the early 1990s, the assistant U.S. secretary of defense for special operations and low-intensity conflict asked Cetron to study terrorism and present a report at the annual Defense Worldwide Combating Terrorism Conference.

"The common wisdom then held that terrorism was quickly becoming obsolete . . . . because attacks cost (the countries) more than any benefit was worth," Cetron said in a telephone interview with the Daily News from his offices in Washington, D.C.

Back then, for example, Libya had been subjected to embargoes and a ban on buying some oil equipment because that nation sponsored the Lockerbie bombing, he said. And the rest of the world was impatient with Iraq for invading Kuwait.

But Cetron said he saw things differently.

In his report, Cetron predicted that terrorism would become "more common, not less," and would be conducted by "Muslim extremists who hated the West and America in particular."

The study - named "Terror 2000: The Future Face of Terrorism" - did more than tell the world to watch out for more attacks. It also made specific recommendations for combating terrorism.

For example, it suggested improved intelligence collection and rebuilding the thinktanks that were abandoned after the Civil War.

Unfortunately, the study was shelved, Cetron said, by Barbara Bodine, who was the acting coordinator for counter-terrorism at the time. She feared it would damage U.S. relationships with Middle East oil-producing countries because it predicted a growth in terrorism by radical Muslims.

Consequently, it was never shared with the president, his Cabinet members of members of Congress.

Had it been released, Cetron said he believes the events of 9/11 could have been avoided.

Now, despite the Western world's efforts to curb terrorism, Cetron said matters are far from being resolved.

For example, as many as 30,000 foreign fighters are believed to have moved into Iraq, where they are gaining experience that will serve them in campaigns against the United States, he said. And schools around the world funded by Saudi Arabia are teaching "anti-Western messages."

Plus, Cetron said he is sure that, in time, elite terrorists will have more than plastic explosives to make their point. "They will have nuclear weapons," he said.

Cetron also predicts that al-Qaida or its spin-offs may soon take over countries where the government is weak. Some of those, he said, include Iran, Iraq, Sudan, Syria, Pakistan and Afghanistan.

So what does the United States and its allies do?

In a report presented last March to ASIS International (an organization for security professionals), Cetron made these suggestions:

Address the issue of Pakistan possessing nuclear weapons and Iran trying to acquire them.

Secure the nuclear material now abandoned around the world, including 340 metric tons in Russia.

n Keep track of nuclear scientists in the Muslim world.

Discourage Saudi Arabia from spreading an anti-American message.

"This report is only a small first step in developing counterterrorist strategies for the future. Yet it is important for what it represents: the beginning of a long and difficult process by which we may avoid the extreme measures considered. This is one effort that absolutely must succeed. The alternative is too horrifying to accept," he said.

Are you willing to put aside - for a while anyway - your natural sense of skepticism and practicality, and do a bit of dreaming?

Are you interested in learning more about trends developing across the world and trying to imagine how they might impact Northeast Nebraska?

Or, better yet, how Norfolk and Madison County could capitalize on them?

That's what the Visioning 2026 project is all about, and next Monday will provide an opportunity for local and area residents to get in on the ground floor of the process.

Dr. Marv Cetron - identified by U.S. News and World Report as one of the nation's leading futurists - will be in Norfolk to speak at a free symposium at 7 p.m. at the Johnny Carson Theatre.

During his 20-year career with the U.S. Navy, Cetron was in charge of the design and development of the most comprehensive technological forecast process in the United States. Since then, he has served as a consultant to firms like Apple Computers, General Motors, Xerox and IBM. He's also worked with the governments of several countries.

His focus now - as president of Forecasting International - is to provide industry, governments and communities with the benefits and insights of an international group of experts.

But don't expect a canned speech come next Monday night.

Since agreeing to come to Norfolk as part of the Visioning 2026 project, Cetron has spent time identifying key trends that he thinks might have some applicability to Norfolk and Madison County.

A series of articles in the Daily News this week will shed light on some of those trends. Even more information is available on the project's Web site located at www.visioning2026.com.

If you're excited about the future and what it could mean for Norfolk and Madison County, then attending Monday's speech by Cetron would be an excellent way to fuel that excitement.

If you're a bit intimidated by the future and what it could mean for Norfolk and Madison County, then attending his speech would be a good idea, too.

Either way, the future is coming. It's time to start becoming prepared.

But the idea of a smaller community hiring a lobbyist - specifically to promote its interests - is fairly new.

Dr. Marv Cetron, president of Forecasting International in Washington, D.C., said he believes "it's the way to go" and that Norfolk and Madison County should give serious thought to getting on board.

Cetron is helping organizers of the Visioning 2026 process, which is designed to encourage Norfolk and Madison County residents to envision the future and capitalize on growing trends.

Cetron knows that lobbyists who work for small communities are successful. Take Treasure Island, Fla., for example.

Treasure Island only sounds as though it's located in fantasy world. In reality, the town of 7,500 faces the same challenges as most any other community in America.

For instance, several years ago, it needed to repair a crumbling bridge.

According to a story in the New York Times, after state and federal funding sources went dry, city officials decided they had no choice but to issue bonds, raise property taxes and increase the toll on a local highway to 50 cents.

Before moving ahead with those plans, Treasure Island officials made a last-ditch effort to acquire federal funding by hiring a federal lobbyist, who managed to get them a $50 million appropriation.

It was $35 million more than they even had requested.

The process is called earmarking, which does not mean that more federal dollars are being spent but focuses on how available dollars are divvied up.

Since then, Treasure Island has continued to pay its lobbyist $5,000 a month and has continued to reap benefits, including $500,000 in federal funds to repair a sewer plant, and more than $1 million for walkways and crosswalks.

"It's worth the money," Cetron said. "If you can't get back eight to 10 times what you're paying, you have the wrong lobbyist."

In the past 10 years, the number of Washington lobbyists hired by public entities has risen from around 750 to more than 1,400.

"The average paid by communities is $5,000 a month . . . and they usually bring in $500,000 to $600,000 annually," Cetron said.

Other communities in Florida are benefiting as well.

According to the New York Times article, North Miami Beach and Homestead, both with populations of around 40,000, received a combined $13 million in earmarks over the past five years compared with nothing for six cities of similar size in the area.

While some people question the practice of communities hiring lobbyists, claiming that elected officials should be the ones helping secure funds for needed projects, Cetron said most elected officials are too busy and normally don't have the expertise to be lobbyists.

And communities such as Norfolk that are located in the heart of America should get every penny out of Washington that they can, especially when it comes to Homeland Security money, Cetron said.

"Over half the world's food supply is coming from your area. Make sure your portion (of tax money) comes back to you," Cetron said.

At least that's the opinion of Dr. Marv Cetron.

The president of Forecasting International, which is based in Washington, D.C., is helping organizers of the Visioning 2026 project help Norfolk and Madison County envision their future. As part of that process, he's throwing out some ideas that local and area residents might want to consider.

And a theme park is one of them.

"There's nothing from Kansas City to Colorado," Cetron said.

He envisions a "family-friendly" park that would take people back to the early days of Nebraska's settlement.

Sort of like the "Williamsburg of the Midwest," he said, referring to Colonial Williamsburg in Virgnia, which is a living-history park that depicts life as it was when the first European immigrants arrived in America.

"Prosperous amusement parks bring vacationers and entertainment-seekers to their communities, provide jobs and contribute to the local tax base," Cetron said.

Cetron said he believes a theme park would be successful because of the pressure families feel to fit quality time into busy schedules.

"They offer a total break from the routine, guaranteed to release the tensions of a hurried, high-stress life," he said. "And they offer activities for the whole family."

Cetron also suggested that communities looking into the future consider changes to the traditional education model.

His suggestions include replacing some traditional classes with online classes, which, he said, would reduce school costs while maintaining high educational performance.

And despite what some skeptics say, Cetron supports the concept of merit pay for teachers.

"Offer merit pay for two achievements . . . subject knowledge and classroom performance," he said. "Under no circumstances give it for having attained a credential whose value cannot be demonstrated in the classroom."

Another one of Cetron's ideas deals with a topic that's had a lot of discussion this summer - oil.

Unlike many people, Cetron does not believe the world faces an oil shortage. In fact, he thinks that in the next few years, oil prices will stabilize at around $45 a barrel.

"There is no sound reason to believe that oil production has peaked," he said.

So what does that mean for the ethanol plants sprouting up around the Midwest?

Dropping oil prices may lessen the demand for ethanol, Cetron said.

Even now, he said, ethanol is used mostly in the Midwest, and even some of those states have few outlets for fuel that is 85 percent ethanol. And there are not many vehicles on the market that can burn E85.

Plus, he said, there is a concern that the demand for corn to make ethanol may put a dent in the world's food supply.

So Cetron suggests that other products - such as grasses - be grown and processed into fuel instead of corn.

"That way you're not taking away from the food supply," Cetron said.

If you want a good job with a guaranteed future, go into the medical profession.

No, you don't have to be a doctor. You could be a physician's assistant, home health aide, physical therapist's aid or take your pick from a long list of medical professions that are expected to grow by leaps and bounds in the next few years.

That's the opinion of Dr. Marvin Cetron of Washington, D.C., who took a approximately 250 people on a journey into the future Monday night.

Cetron, founder and president of Forecasting International, was the guest of Visioning 2026, a coalition of entities - including the Norfolk Daily News, Northeast Community College, Norfolk Public Schools, Norfolk Area Chamber of Commerce, City of Norfolk, Madison County and Leadership Norfolk -\!q that is interested in helping prepare Norfolk and Madison County for the future.

Cetron didn't jump into a time machine and project himself and the audience at Johnny Carson Theatre into the year 2026.

Instead, he explained that he and his associates use quantitative data and research to predict trends that will affect business, industry, military and society in general.

In a "tell-it-like-it-is" style, Cetron let the audience know that the future is in education.

Cetron advocated for vocational schools that can teach students how to repair and maintain the high-tech equipment that is being used in industry and medical fields. He pushed for high-tech vocational education classes already the eighth grade.

He also suggested more classes and organizations - such as Junior Achievement - that teach children how to become entrepreneurs.

And teachers, he said, should receive merit pay based on students' performance.

"They (teachers) need to spend 10 to 12 hours a week mentoring other teachers . . . and students who aren't making the grade, need more personal time," he said.

Having students memorize facts and figures so they can recite it on a test isn't the answer. Instead, he said "kids need to learn where to find the data and how to use the data so they can become entrepreneurs."

"Education is the bottom line . . . or we'll lose our kids," he said.

Cetron, who had a 20-year career in research, development and planning with the U.S. Navy before launching Forecasters International, touched on other "futuristic" topics, including business opportunities that community leaders could explore.

Among those suggestions was a theme park that would show life as it was when Nebraska was part of the Wild West, and a Club Medical-type of facility where people who don't have insurance could combine obtaining low-cost health care with a vacation.

He strongly suggested that community leaders look locating a manufacturing plant in Madison County that would produce RFID (radio frequency identification) tags - and that it should be built with federal Homeland Security funds.

The tags, similar to bar codes currently found on grocery items, can store and report almost any type of information,

While the tags have a multitude of uses, including tracking merchandise shipped overseas, Cetron said they are especially useful for monitoring cattle from birth to the time they enter the food chain.

And Nebraska, he said, produces much of the beef in the United States.

"Homeland Security should be building a plant right here," he added.

After his 40-minute talk, Cetron answered a variety of questions from the audience.

Without a crystal ball, Cetron predicted that Hillary Clinton would not be the next president and that members of younger generations will continue to move from job to job so they can step up the corporate ladder quickly.

And Norfolk, he said, needs to entice business and industry to town by promoting its quality of life.

"Your values are great . . . living styles are great. If education is great, they will come," he said.

"Visioning 2026" in Norfolk and Madison County, Nebraska has been working for months to formulate a plan for the future.

Monday night, a national "futurist," who has been studying the county spoke to citizens about to keep good citizens in the community. "If you want kids to stay here, you don't want them to leave and go to the east and west coast, then you've got to be in the position to get a better education and build up new jobs and entrepreneurs," said Dr. Marv Cetron, Futurist.

He says "Visioning 2026" will allow Madison County to stay ahead of the game. "It lets you know what the future looks like," Cetron said. "It lets people know, hey we want your input, we want to work with you."

The purpose of Visioning 2026 is to create a culture of adaptability, sustainability, and openness that supports community transformation in Norfolk and Madison County.