Visioning 2026 Blog
The Future Will Have More Uncertainty
This is a excerpt from an email newsletter published by Rick Smyre, President, Communities of the Future.
This is the first of my two weekly messages/articles that I will be forwarding. I thought this article by Tom Friedman, Elvis Has Left the Mountain, particularly appropriate because of his emphasis that the future will have more uncertainty than we have ever seen and that it will take a longer time to get out of this economic mess.
One of the articles that I am writing in the near future for our web site will focus on how I believe we are in a turning point of values and ideas that will need to be aligned to a new type of world that, not only is constantly changing, but one whose foundation principles of how we learn, how we do economic development, how we lead and how we govern will need to transform. Our present institutions were created in a time of slow change where hierarchies and standard/singular outcomes were appropriate.
I find it fascinating how much our COTF work (that is focused on building capacities for transformation) is resonating recently with so many diverse people.
What has not struck many people, in my opinion, is that the Western emphasis on individuality (that has evolved to extreme measures) is inconsistent with the need of building multiple connections....and that we are entering a world of systemic connections where a newly emerging culture, interconnected economic networks, and holistic learning ideas will be seamless for those who are successful. This is far different from out of date ideas of an Industrial Age era, and is nothing less that the birth of a new approach to the future. It is almost as if we are seeing the application of Gladwell's emphasis on a tipping point related to a new type of society that is emerging.
One of the reasons that I think our COTF work is now connecting with multiple ahas! at this point is that, until recently, few people have seen the need to study trends, weak signals and transformational ideas, and therefor, are left stuck in a traditional thinking box that is based on increasingly obsolete ideas and methods...thus adding to the frustration we are seeing...as well as the increasing fear for the future.
I noticed that this same type of idea was at the center of Friedman's article as those in Davos, in side conversations, were still searching for the "one" man or idea who could get us out of this mess. This resonates with the question I asked my VPs thirty years ago..."what is it that we need to do to resolve this yarn quality problem?" It took me ten years to realize I had asked the wrong question. Any question I should have asked should have emphasized the idea that ....what are the various interacting factors that we need to consider?
The connection is that both those in Davos who were asking this question and my own inappropriate question in 1975 are based on "one factor thinking." We have been moving into an age of institutional shifts that will be based on complex adaptive systems where leadership is focused on building capacities for transformation, and where deeper collaboration will be required, in my opinion, to resolve increasing complex issues. I emphasize the need to think about issues within a transforming futures context. Traditional thinking, knowledge and experience is no longer enough.
Notice the struggle in many places to include Washington, DC to get beyond the dichotomies of either/or thinking. In a time of innovation where developing new connections will be the rule, we are often still stuck in traditional ways of thinking that looks for the one answer. To me, this is at the core of Friedman's article.
Hope a couple of ideas in it are of interest. All the best. Rick
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