Visioning 2026 Blog

Process Project -- Appropriate Questions to Consider -- Solar Power

In preparing for the Norfolk Leadership Transformational Learning Process Project a class participant provided the opportunity to provide comments that should help other participant.

Mike,

Thanks for responding to my earlier question on what topic area the group had chosen.

Solar power is a very interesting topic that we as a community need to learn more about and how it will impact us in the future. With the number of sunny days we have in Northeast Nebraska we should be taking advantage of opportunity. What are the are issues that will allow for a "convergence of change" and how will transformational learning enable us to make this change sooner?

From a transformational learning view point I pose the following questions the process project group might consider

- What questions might you ask community leaders that could seed the concept of incorporating solar power energy solutions into projects such as the Recreation and Water Park infrastructure proposal and the NorthFork River Development project? How could they connect and influence the citizens that may have an opportunity to vote on a bond issue?

- How can you make your project into a community collaborative project? What do think will be important for these leaders and citizens to get to the hmmm.... stage of accepting these renewable energy changes?

- What connections could you try and get citizens to make with solar power, these projects and other future trends as well as organizations outside the immediate area that could influence the implementation of these renewable energy solutions in our community?

- How should we engage the educational systems in our communities to realize the importance of renewable energy and their impact on our community and their lives?

- If you picked 5 individuals (or groups) in the community to present your project to who might they be, why, and what result would you expect from these individuals (and groups)? What relationships / connections could these individuals / groups have with each other and how might they be connected to individuals / groups outside the community?

- What other future trends and technologies would you expect will have a direct, indirect or even oblique impact on solar power and our community?

- What connections can you make with the increased emphasis on nanotechnology to help in solving numerous challenges, improved energy conversion, reduced manufacturing costs, and fuel cell storage that are related to solar power? How will solar power energy distribution be different from the current model?

- What would you state is your vision, mission, and purpose of your project in transformational terms and why might this be different from a traditional method of making these statements?

- What references will you be using and how will they be connected to transformational learning concepts?

Let me know if you have more questions related to this project.

Thanks for continuing this dialogue.

Transformational Learning --> Second Life (virtual civilization)

How will virtual world social and networking technology impact us in the future? What can this social network trend teach us about transformation learning?

We continue to dialogue with Rich Smyre, President, Communities of the Future, on community transformational learning and the Leadership Norfolk Process Project. I'm including the notes from Rick and how we as community leaders can make connections and impact our future.

"Am forwarding to you a dialogue (not included in this posting) that occurred in Second Life (virtual civilization) yesterday that was sent to me by an associate (Larry W.) in Nebraska who has been learning about the use of SL and will be coaching me and a group in Gaston County in the near future.

Thought you might be interested in three things:1) that this session involved two panelists from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation...therefore, it shows SL and virtual worlds are gaining legitimacy, 2) notice the non-linear type of dialogue..this requires the skill of being able to scan an interchange among multiple people to pick out kernels of interesting comments/ideas, and 3) that there are several weak signals in the body of the dialogue that I think important.

Several weak signals are:

1) at 18:07 (this is the time it was said), the following comment was made... Beithe Mills: "Not me, interested in international law, and am always interested in research into how to use virtual worlds, as they expand. The internet when it first started was looked at as "hmmmm, what is this, what can it do?" SL and other virtual worlds are now in the same position"

Notice Beithe Mills (don't know this person) actually referred to what COTF calls the second stage of transformation..hmmmmm, and compares the stage of development and use of virtual worlds such as Second Life to the early '70s when the internet was first introduced before the web was developed in the early '90s.

2) [18:10] You: "I am looking to create an organization to assist moving our communities and societies from strictly traditional arrangements towards transformational. Virtual Worlds (VW's) create a context where people see a need to change. VW's successfully show self-organization, emergence, feedback, and parallel processes.... while doing a great job of introducing trends of the future. Can you speak a bit about any ongoing efforts within SL or with outside grants to encourage transformational change in communities?"

This insightful comment recognizes the potential of Second Life and other virtual worlds to be able to help traditional thinkers see the need to change and move beyond the concept of reforming change to the concept of transforming change. As all of you know, one of the great challenges in this time of historical transition and transformation is to find the right balance between taking enough risk while introducing these new ideas to traditional thinkers such as local boards and elected officials so that they will have to face the realities of what is emerging, and, at the same time, developing new ways to introduce the concepts so that different people with different "access points" will connect in different ways...to get to the hmmmm stage of transformation referred to in the comment mentioned above by Beithe Mills at 18:07.

3) [18:11] Beithe Mills: I am fighting that even with friends and my Boss......"You want to take some time off work to go play SL?"

One of the things I have noticed in working with local leaders throughout the country is that those who see the need for this type of change are struggling to find appropriate ways to get their peers and colleagues to understand the significance of the challenges that we are facing in so many areas of life. Although SL is emerging as an excellent platform for this to occur, many people only see it as a game because of its initial introduction as a multi-player game. This is where imagination, intuition and insight beyond the obvious is being exhibited in this interchange if a "futures" filter is used.

In my experience in local communities, even many of those who want truly new ideas introduced become cautious when they are faced with some of the natural reactions from their associates. They also hesitate to sit down with those with whom they are working to explain why ideas such as SL are important because they know there is no initial frame of reference for new ideas on the part of their colleagues, and that the time it would take to seed new ways of thinking and the fact that many will resist changing their view of the world can be very wearing and risky.

In addition, many times others that are brought in as coaches and consultants do not have a good understanding of the specific situation with which one is dealing. Often, if the person from outside the community introduces ideas that are beyond the scope of what is seen as possible/appropriate in the opinion of the local leader and/or his peers, the issue again emerges about how to shock the group into understanding the new reality without having the local leader(s) take too much risk.

This leads to the fact that until the local leaders who are seeding transformative change actually begin to realize the need to learn the knowledge and skills of seeding the processes of transformation beyond knowing only trends and weak signals (as important as they are to know), they will have difficulty sitting dialoguing about how to create an environment for transformation and developing effective strategies that seed individual and group transformation.

One key principle of transformation is that there will be no transformation unless those who are traditional thinkers are challenged initially at a level that will make them uncomfortable, even irritated, and possibly angry. It is this potential that makes it important for networks and teams of those involved as local coordinators and external coaches to dialogue together and share all opinions and suggestions to be able to craft effective strategies over the longer run, as well as to protect those in local communities from getting too far out on the limb. Of course, there will be differences in opinions as to what that means.

Think of the reaction of many of your associates and local leaders who do not see the "practicality" of such an idea as virtual worlds. In my opinion, this is a key reason that each organization in a local community, within a year, should have a designated participant in virtual worlds to learn how to navigate within such an alien environment as well as to introduce to any local group why SL will be important for education, workforce initiatives, economic development and for developing a community culture open to new ideas.

This focus on virtual worlds is the one new idea on which I plan to spend a significant amount of time to become more familiar so that it can be a key part of our COTF work.

The fact that the MacArthur Foundation is interested in promoting this environment, and that the Chinese recently announced a month ago that they plan to shift 150 million of its citizens into the virtual world arena as a national policy for economic development in the future, should gain our attention and cause us to begin to think about how to learn about virtual worlds and consider ways to utilize them for our communities' benefit....certainly as a new educational platform for those under 30 for whom this is an increasing way of life.

One quick observation, it is my opinion that within five-ten years, there will be a balance between the need to have face to face relationships as well as operate in virtual worlds. The organizations and communities that help to develop such a balance first will be seen as leaders in the future, and gain the rewards that will come their way.

Hope this is of interest.

Leadership Norfolk Transformational Learning Process Project

Each year as part of the Leadership Norfolk class the participants are asked to complete a process project. In the Janaury class the Process Project objectives were presented. This 8 page PDF formated file introduces the expected learning objectives.

The material they need has been provided in their 3-ring binder and handouts. Numerous references have been provided in this blog and handout material.

Participants, as a member of a team, are to select a future trend that will have an impact on the Norfolk area in the future, say 5-10 or even 20 years.

Using the transformational learning skills they need to describe how they would approach getting their possible solutions implemented, why their solutions would be different from the mechanisms used in the past, what transformations skills are needed by the local leaders and the citizens to realize the implementation.

The trend should be scoped in such a way as to realize solutions at the local and regional level through the adoption of transformation learning skills. The use of references to support their ideas will be helpful.

The material should be organized is a manner that can presented to a group of community leaders that would have a stake in implementation.

What's the "Best News in 2007" -- Process Project Possibilities

What was the "Best News in 2007" as reported in published literature at the end of 2007 through
KurzweilAI.net Weekly Newsletter, 12/31/07.

What weak signals, trends, and connections can you suggest from these reports? How will these news items impact the Norfolk community in the future?

Also, please consider the following paper, 56 Top Trends Affecting Norfolk, presented by Marvin Cetron, in September 2006, as ideas for your process project. There are 56 trends identified by Visioning 2026 members that were evaluated by Mr. Cetron and their likely impact to the community and Northeast Nebraska.

Mark Hall

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Science's 2007 Breakthroughs of the Year
KurzweilAI.net Dec. 21, 2007
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Science recognized "Human Genetic Variation" as the 2007 Breakthrough of the Year, and detailed nine other of the year's most significant scientific accomplishments in its December 21 issue: - Cosmic rays' acceleration may come from passing by the magnetic fields around black holes. - Researchers determined the structure of the human...
http://www.kurzweilai.net/email/newsRedirect.html?newsID=7680&m=24788

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2008: your guide to the year in science
Popular Science December 2007
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IBM's 3-D chip stacks, "physmatics" (the blurry line between math and physics), and high-resolution imaging satellites will be part of 2008's biggest science stories, predicts Popular Science....
http://www.kurzweilai.net/email/newsRedirect.html?newsID=7720&m=24788

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Popular Science's Best of What's New 2007
Popular Science December 2007
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The first five-finger bionic grip, the world's most efficient solar panels, and a home 3-D printer are in the "Best of What's New 2007" list from Popular Science....
http://www.kurzweilai.net/email/newsRedirect.html?newsID=7719&m=24788

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Internet Opens Elite Colleges to All
Washington Post Dec. 29, 2007
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More than 100 universities worldwide, including Johns Hopkins, Tufts and Notre Dame, have joined MIT in a consortium of schools promoting their open courseware--college courses available online for free. MIT's OpenCourseWare's site gets more than 1 million hits per month, with translated versions getting 500,000 more. About 60 percent of users...
http://www.kurzweilai.net/email/newsRedirect.html?newsID=7717&m=24788

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The Year in Biotech
Technology Review Dec. 28, 2007
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Stem cells from skin, myriad microbes, and a $350,000 personal genome are among Technology Review's list of top biotech stories in...
http://www.kurzweilai.net/email/newsRedirect.html?newsID=7714&m=24788

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IDC serves up top 10 storage predictions for 2008
Computerworld Dec. 24, 2007
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Online storage services and solid-state disk drives are among IDC's top 10 storage predictions for 2008....
http://www.kurzweilai.net/email/newsRedirect.html?newsID=7712&m=24788

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2007: The year in technology
New Scientist Dec. 24, 2007
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Leech-like robots that crawl along the heart to deliver drugs, robots with a fish-like electrical sensing system, and boredom-detecting software are among the key new technologies featured in New Scientist magazine in 2007....
http://www.kurzweilai.net/email/newsRedirect.html?newsID=7711&m=24788

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2007: The year in biology and medicine
NewScientist.com news service Dec. 26, 2007
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Obesity research (including potential causes from genetics or viruses), the emergence of completely drug-resistant TB, other infectious diseases, and stem cells were among the big biology and medicine news stories covered by New Scientist in 2007....
http://www.kurzweilai.net/email/newsRedirect.html?newsID=7710&m=24788

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Top 10 Scientific Breakthroughs of 2007
Wired News Dec. 27, 2007
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A transparent material as strong as steel, stem cells from a cloned Rhesus monkey, and smaller transistors made with new materials are among the top 10 scientific breakthroughs covered by Wired in 2007....
http://www.kurzweilai.net/email/newsRedirect.html?newsID=7707&m=24788

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2007: The Year in Energy
Technology Review Dec. 26, 2007
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Advanced biofuels, more-efficient vehicles, and solar power (using quantum dots and mimicking photosynthesis) top the most notable energy stories covered by Technology Review in 2007....
http://www.kurzweilai.net/email/newsRedirect.html?newsID=7704&m=24788

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2007: The Year in Hardware
Technology Review Dec. 26, 2007
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Touch screens, context-aware gadgets, autonomous vehicles, and brain-computer interfaces (controlling computer games, market research, facial recognition) were among the top hardware developments covered by Technology Review in 2007....
http://www.kurzweilai.net/email/newsRedirect.html?newsID=7703&m=24788

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The Top 10 New Organisms of 2007
Wired Magazine Dec. 26, 2007
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Organisms invented in 2007 include insulin-producing lettuce, yeast with poison-sensing rat genes, cancer-fighting Clostridium bacteria, artful fluorescent tadpoles and butanol-producing E. coli....
http://www.kurzweilai.net/email/newsRedirect.html?newsID=7702&m=24788

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The Year in Nanotech: Better batteries and supersticky glues are on the horizon
Technology Review Jan. 3, 2008
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Nanowires and nanotubes for generating and storing energy, new classes of materials that could render objects invisible, and non-stick or supersticky materials are a few of the nanotechnology items in Technology Review's "The Year in...
http://www.kurzweilai.net/email/newsRedirect.html?newsID=7734&m=24788

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The Year in Software
Technology Review Jan. 2, 2008
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New search technologies (such as speech recognition), cloud (web-based)computing, virtual worlds, self-expression, new social-networks features, and expanded mobile-phone services were Technology Review's key software developments of...
http://www.kurzweilai.net/email/newsRedirect.html?newsID=7725&m=24788

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A Few of Our Favorite Things: ScienceNOW's top stories of 2007
Science NOW Jan. 1, 2008
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Arguments that black holes do not exist and quantum mechanics research that finds an observer can change the behavior of light, even after it has been measured, are two of Science Now's top stories of 2007....
http://www.kurzweilai.net/email/newsRedirect.html?newsID=7731&m=24788

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National Nanotechnology Initiative releases new strategic plan
KurzweilAI.net Jan. 2, 2008
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The new 2007 NNI Strategic Plan for the work of the National Nanotechnology Initiative has been released, describing the vision, goals, and priorities of the NNI, high-impact application opportunities, and critical research needs....
http://www.kurzweilai.net/email/newsRedirect.html?newsID=7730&m=24788

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The Generational Divide in Copyright Morality
New York Times Dec. 20, 2007
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Today's college students don't find file-sharing wrong, according to one informal audience...
http://www.kurzweilai.net/email/newsRedirect.html?newsID=7697&m=24788

Transformational Learning -- Process Project

For the upcoming Leadership Norfolk classes the class participants will be breaking up into teams and preparing a process project using transformational learning skills.

In preparation for the January 2008 class we are providing some read ahead material to help with the future dialogue in class and your activities for selecting a process project and developing your outcome. The general topic for this year's class is, “How would you prepare Norfolk for the future that is emerging using transformational methods?”

As part of the class we'll be investigating weak signals, e.g., the current political campaign and how this may impact the future political process. Please take a couple minutes and read the following New York Times article by David Brooks, Jan. 4, 2008, The Two Earthquakes.

A more recent paper written by Rick Smyre, he introduces several new weak signals that should be considered as part of the class dialogue and your process project.

http://www.Visioning2026.com/docs/TL/COTF-WeakSignalsList-Jan'08.pdf

On a related note we've included several links to PDF files, the first being more lengthly and discussing Democracy in a Learning Mode, by Rick Symre.

http://www.Visioning2026.com/docs/TL/DEMOCRACY-IN-A-LEARNING-MODE.pdf

Other related reference material will be handed out in class and is included here.

“CONSIDERATION QUESTIONS”, When Designing a Process Project Framework

PROCESS PROJECTS OF TRANSFORMATION, KEY IDEAS TO CONSIDER, STEPS TO TAKE

Transformational Learning -- What's It All About

Leadership Norfolk class starts the journey on communities of the future transformation learning.

What you'll find in this message

1. References to Transformational Learning
2. Testimonials
3. Futures Generative Dialogue
4. Weak Signals from the Past -- Future Trends Today

During the last class you were briefly introduced to future trends and why they are important to our future as a community and an individual. During the next class we'll introduce the concept of transformational learning and how it is different and more powerful from our traditional methods of learning.

1. We are including links to material to help prepare you for the journey. Please take some time to read through the material.

The first tutorial covers Transformational Learning -- Key Concepts and Questions, material (PDF formated) developed by Rich Smyre, President of Communities of the Future, over the course of many years.

The second document, Transformation Learning -- Core Competencies and Evaluative Methods for Specific Outcomes, is a start at the "how to" begin the journey.

2. You might ask why is this new learning method important to me? We've included two testimonials that will help make the connection.
Riding the Winds of Change with Transformational Thinking
My Transformation Learning Journey

3. A term that will come up during the next six months of Leadership Norfolk is Futures Generative Dialogue. We are planting the seed now as it will take some time for this concept to germinate, grow and bloom in your understanding and practice.

Futures Generative Dialogue -- Background of Understanding

One of the most important Communities of the Future (COTF) skills for community transformation is the ability to create an environment for "futures generative dialogue" and to be able to facilitate it. To this end, it is important that a process/transformative leader to understand the differences between debate, dialogue, generative dialogue and "futures generative dialogue. Debate is connected to the traditional idea that there is one truth for any issue. Dialogue creates differences as a result of diverse people listening to each other. Generative dialogue sets a goal to develop innovation and new ideas. Futures generative dialogue adds the element of "dialogue within a futures context" that ensures that new ideas and innovations are transformative and not just rearranging or updating old approaches.

"Futures generative dialogue" will become increasingly important for our communities and our economy as the need for continuous innovation evolves. Until individuals and organizations in our communities become familiar with future trends and their potential impact, many ideas thought appropriate actually will be increasingly obsolete.

The following elements are important to the needs of "futures generative dialogue:"

Direct Elements:

a) Is the dialogue with an individual or group?
b) If a group, what is the size of the group?
c) Is an outcome required? If so within what timeframe?
d) Are you familiar and competent with the methods and techniques of "futures generative dialogue?"

Indirect Elements:

a) The need for a large knowledge base and passion for learning.
b) The need to adjust to a changing situation?
c) Has the context of the "fgd" changed?
d) How to take advantage of outcomes of "fgd."

4. During the last class you were briefly introduced to future trends. We continue to ask ourselves is this a trend or a fad. Typically there are several factors involved in establishing a trend, they may commonally be called weak signals The following list of weak signals and the related connections may be considered as mechanism for detecting those future trends. What weak signals can you identify that may become a trend in the future?

Weak Signals From the Past

1) CB radios and Bag Phones evolved to Cell Phones: supported by cellular standards, batteries, microprocessor.
2) Interactive games such as Pong evolved to multi-player virtual reality games: supported by new gaming industry, microprocessor, video card technology, Internet.
3) Hybrid crops evolved to genetically modified crops: supported DNA research, minimal tillage practices, reduced equipment reqts, improved moisture control.
4) Medical information accessability and billing: supported by HIPA standards, cryptography, Internet, electronic claims submission, use of PDA for patient information.
5) Use of plastics in everyday activities: supported by chemical structural engineering using CAD and plastic injected molding tools, tougher mileage standards for vehicles.
6) Growth in alternative fuels: supported by rising fuel prices, unstable supplies and world demands, MTBE contamination
7) Advertising and marketing using non-traditional methods: Internet, web sites, blogs, satellite radio,
8) E-commerce and small business growth: supported by Internet, web site standards, people with less time, youth endorses on-line purchasing, eBay, Paypal.
9) Credit card usage: communications and security standards
10) Open heart surgery, replacement of organs, tissue regrowth: supported by anti rejection drugs, improve surgery tools and techiques
11) Digital media replacing printed books (world book reference material changes): digital technology standards, Internet distribution, wikipedia publishing

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