Visioning 2026 Blog
The Future Roadmap 2010-2050--An Exploration of Current & Future Trends
TRENDS & TECHNOLOGY TIMELINE 2010+
A roadmap for the exploration of current & future trends.
I just finished reading a couple articles in the latest Fast Company Magazine. Things are changing faster than we expected.
From personal experience I keep tabs on the AG commodities. For example, on January 12th the USDA changed their forecast of corn on hand. It dropped the value of corn $.50 cents in two days. From basically $3.50 to $3.00 per bushel on the local market, an approximately 16% drop in value. In years past you would never see a $.50 change in 1 year let alone in 2 days.
The stock market dropped approximately 5% in 5 days this past week. There is going to be even more turmoil as we move forward.
For example, how are we going to protect our 401(k) and IRA accounts from dropping in such significant values since we weren’t in the “right” investment instruments? I thought the 2000 internet bubble was bad, it was nothing compared to the 2008 “crash” in asset values that I don’t necessarily see a rebound in the next 5-10 years. So much for the buy and hold in the long term which is what I lived by the past 30 years. I believe the paradigm has changed but I’m not sure to what, other than a lot of discussions on Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs).
In the chart I read a couple of the lines. One that caught my interest, comes off Sustainability, gray line, below and moves to the right, shifting centers of economic activity, cautious optimism, CHIME liquidity, increasing inflation, ….. I had to look up the new term CHIME, which stands for China, India, and Middle East [http://resources.alibaba.com/topic/39879/CHIME_Countries_to_Charm_Investors_.htm].
There is a lot of data that could be studied over the course of several weeks and months.
Transformational Learning --> Second Life (virtual civilization)
How will virtual world social and networking technology impact us in the future? What can this social network trend teach us about transformation learning?
We continue to dialogue with Rich Smyre, President, Communities of the Future, on community transformational learning and the Leadership Norfolk Process Project. I'm including the notes from Rick and how we as community leaders can make connections and impact our future.
"Am forwarding to you a dialogue (not included in this posting) that occurred in Second Life (virtual civilization) yesterday that was sent to me by an associate (Larry W.) in Nebraska who has been learning about the use of SL and will be coaching me and a group in Gaston County in the near future.
Thought you might be interested in three things:1) that this session involved two panelists from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation...therefore, it shows SL and virtual worlds are gaining legitimacy, 2) notice the non-linear type of dialogue..this requires the skill of being able to scan an interchange among multiple people to pick out kernels of interesting comments/ideas, and 3) that there are several weak signals in the body of the dialogue that I think important.
Several weak signals are:
1) at 18:07 (this is the time it was said), the following comment was made... Beithe Mills: "Not me, interested in international law, and am always interested in research into how to use virtual worlds, as they expand. The internet when it first started was looked at as "hmmmm, what is this, what can it do?" SL and other virtual worlds are now in the same position"
Notice Beithe Mills (don't know this person) actually referred to what COTF calls the second stage of transformation..hmmmmm, and compares the stage of development and use of virtual worlds such as Second Life to the early '70s when the internet was first introduced before the web was developed in the early '90s.
2) [18:10] You: "I am looking to create an organization to assist moving our communities and societies from strictly traditional arrangements towards transformational. Virtual Worlds (VW's) create a context where people see a need to change. VW's successfully show self-organization, emergence, feedback, and parallel processes.... while doing a great job of introducing trends of the future. Can you speak a bit about any ongoing efforts within SL or with outside grants to encourage transformational change in communities?"
This insightful comment recognizes the potential of Second Life and other virtual worlds to be able to help traditional thinkers see the need to change and move beyond the concept of reforming change to the concept of transforming change. As all of you know, one of the great challenges in this time of historical transition and transformation is to find the right balance between taking enough risk while introducing these new ideas to traditional thinkers such as local boards and elected officials so that they will have to face the realities of what is emerging, and, at the same time, developing new ways to introduce the concepts so that different people with different "access points" will connect in different ways...to get to the hmmmm stage of transformation referred to in the comment mentioned above by Beithe Mills at 18:07.
3) [18:11] Beithe Mills: I am fighting that even with friends and my Boss......"You want to take some time off work to go play SL?"
One of the things I have noticed in working with local leaders throughout the country is that those who see the need for this type of change are struggling to find appropriate ways to get their peers and colleagues to understand the significance of the challenges that we are facing in so many areas of life. Although SL is emerging as an excellent platform for this to occur, many people only see it as a game because of its initial introduction as a multi-player game. This is where imagination, intuition and insight beyond the obvious is being exhibited in this interchange if a "futures" filter is used.
In my experience in local communities, even many of those who want truly new ideas introduced become cautious when they are faced with some of the natural reactions from their associates. They also hesitate to sit down with those with whom they are working to explain why ideas such as SL are important because they know there is no initial frame of reference for new ideas on the part of their colleagues, and that the time it would take to seed new ways of thinking and the fact that many will resist changing their view of the world can be very wearing and risky.
In addition, many times others that are brought in as coaches and consultants do not have a good understanding of the specific situation with which one is dealing. Often, if the person from outside the community introduces ideas that are beyond the scope of what is seen as possible/appropriate in the opinion of the local leader and/or his peers, the issue again emerges about how to shock the group into understanding the new reality without having the local leader(s) take too much risk.
This leads to the fact that until the local leaders who are seeding transformative change actually begin to realize the need to learn the knowledge and skills of seeding the processes of transformation beyond knowing only trends and weak signals (as important as they are to know), they will have difficulty sitting dialoguing about how to create an environment for transformation and developing effective strategies that seed individual and group transformation.
One key principle of transformation is that there will be no transformation unless those who are traditional thinkers are challenged initially at a level that will make them uncomfortable, even irritated, and possibly angry. It is this potential that makes it important for networks and teams of those involved as local coordinators and external coaches to dialogue together and share all opinions and suggestions to be able to craft effective strategies over the longer run, as well as to protect those in local communities from getting too far out on the limb. Of course, there will be differences in opinions as to what that means.
Think of the reaction of many of your associates and local leaders who do not see the "practicality" of such an idea as virtual worlds. In my opinion, this is a key reason that each organization in a local community, within a year, should have a designated participant in virtual worlds to learn how to navigate within such an alien environment as well as to introduce to any local group why SL will be important for education, workforce initiatives, economic development and for developing a community culture open to new ideas.
This focus on virtual worlds is the one new idea on which I plan to spend a significant amount of time to become more familiar so that it can be a key part of our COTF work.
The fact that the MacArthur Foundation is interested in promoting this environment, and that the Chinese recently announced a month ago that they plan to shift 150 million of its citizens into the virtual world arena as a national policy for economic development in the future, should gain our attention and cause us to begin to think about how to learn about virtual worlds and consider ways to utilize them for our communities' benefit....certainly as a new educational platform for those under 30 for whom this is an increasing way of life.
One quick observation, it is my opinion that within five-ten years, there will be a balance between the need to have face to face relationships as well as operate in virtual worlds. The organizations and communities that help to develop such a balance first will be seen as leaders in the future, and gain the rewards that will come their way.
Hope this is of interest.
Shift Happens
A good way to "shift" your thinking to the future: Shift Happens