Visioning 2026 Concept Paper

Table of Contents

• Preface
• Quotes
• Overview
• Explanation
• Process Components
  • Dialogue Groups
  • Symposium
  • Focus Groups
  • Polling
  • Final Report
• Promotion and Other Considerations
• Conclusion, Contributors and Contact Info
• Appendix A - Five Trends
• Appendix B - Working Definitions
• Appendix C - Dialogue and Focus Groups
• Appendix D - Suggested Readings

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PrefaceBack to Top

What does the future hold for the community of Norfolk and Northeast Nebraska and how do we prepare for it? (See Appendix A for 5 trends shaping the future of Norfolk and the world.) These and other questions are the basis for this concept paper. A group of concerned citizens have seen a need for preparing for our future. They have looked at historical community improvement projects and feel that similar projects will not adequately prepare our community for the evolving future. Working with Rick Smyre – president of Communities of the Future and reading material such as The World is Flat by Thomas Friedman, It’s Alive by Christopher Meyer and Stan Davis, and The Hydrogen Economy, by Jeremy Rifkin; we have begun to see that incremental or reforming change will not be enough for our community to succeed. We must ensure success with transformational change and innovation. We have been witnesses to upheaval in our community as businesses have shut down or not kept up with the pace of change in our society. Traditional top-down community leadership, community improvement projects, business recruitment and community focus that worked for our forefathers will no longer work in the unprecedented, fast-paced, ever-changing age in which we find ourselves. The World Is Flat, Tom Friedman states "The playing field (of a flat world) is not being leveled only in ways that draw in and super-empower a whole new group of innovators. It's being leveled in a way that draws in and super-empowers a whole new group of angry, frustrated, and humiliated men and women."

Advances in technology are driving the rapid rate of change. The internet, personal computers and software have replaced whole industries and revolutionized how business is conducted. Greater understanding of principles of biology and ecology are leading to evolutionary business practices. From It’s Alive : “. . .The increased rate of change in the economy poses the ‘adaptive imperative.’ To survive, business must learn to adapt as fast as the business environment changes. According to futurist Paul Saffo, ‘Business as usual has become business as unusual: unpredictable, unplannable, and above all unmanageable . . .’”

The explosive increase in knowledge and information requires a different type of leadership; one that involves collaboration and networking with large and diverse groups of individuals. As Jeremy Rifikin postulates in his book The Hydrogen Economy : “A decentralized, hydrogen-energy regime offers the hope, at least, of connecting the unconnected and empowering the powerless. When that happens, we could entertain the very real possibility of "reglobalization," this time from the bottom up, and with everyone participating in the process.”

With regard to these and other issues, how do we increase jobs and businesses in Norfolk? How do we attract and keep young adults in the community? How do we nourish a viable and sustainable community where people want to live and work? How do we ensure that Norfolk area continues to grow and thrive in a global economy? It was decided to create a “Visioning 2026 Process” for the Norfolk area community to build awareness and to develop alternatives to address the future. We believe we will attain the best results by collaborating; gathering input, and using the talents of a significant portion of our citizens. We have outlined the visioning process, as shown below; that we believe will be the most effective method.

QuotesBack to Top

All human situations have their inconveniences. We feel those of the present but neither see nor feel those of the future; and hence we often make troublesome changes without amendment, and frequently for the worse. - Benjamin Franklin

The creation of a thousand forests is in one acorn. - Ralph Waldo Emerson

If you go as far as you can see, you will then see enough to go even farther. - John Wooden

A visionary is one who can find his way by moonlight, and see the dawn before the rest of the world. - Oscar Wilde

OverviewBack to Top

Purpose: Develop a culture of adaptability, sustainability, and openness that supports community transformation.

Vision: A community where continuous learning, collaboration, and innovation foster a vibrant and creative culture and economy.

Mission: Implement a short-term visioning process that:

• Uses appropriate technologies to establish and maintain a collaborative community
• Introduces new connective learning processes
• Helps citizens to identify future trends and weak signals, and to recognize the need for innovation
• Summarizes results of the visioning process and reports achievable projects and goals to the community.

(Our vision and mission: short, sweet, to the point, and inspiring. We must sell it, live it, show it, and reward people for moving toward it.) (See Appendix B for working definitions)

ExplanationBack to Top

The Norfolk Visioning 2026 process will identify future challenges and strategies beyond our immediate needs and prepare the Norfolk community for the ever-changing environment in which we shall live. We must empower ourselves to shape our future.

To facilitate a culture of change in our community, the visioning process introduces future trends, enabling the community to collaborate and develop parallel processes for creating innovative action plans. Because of the accelerating changes in our global community, this evolution enhances community prosperity and establishes a sustainable process of cultural transformation.

It is the goal of the visioning committee to incorporate the following key concepts into the process:

• Engage a significant cross-section of the community
• Capture input, ideas, and the imagination of the citizens; and utilizing their ideas to direct the visioning process
• Lay seeds and build capacities for innovation, transformation, identifying future trends and weak signals and developing leaders and relationships in the community
• Emergence of community-directed ideas, issues and projects
• Encourage the use of electronic media technology for access points and citizen feedback to transform the public’s capacity to anticipate and prepare for a different kind of future
• Provide various venues for citizens to contribute ideas to the visioning process
• Foster a culture of openness and trust.

This concept paper identifies a framework for gathering citizen input, and establishes a series of parallel processes to bring together interested citizens for their thoughts as well as structured capacity building experiences for an age of constant change.

Process ComponentsBack to TopBack to Top

Dialogue GroupsBack to Top

One of the key components of the visioning process is the Dialogue Groups.

"David Bohm traces the roots of Dialogue to the Greek ‘dia’ and ‘logos’ which means ‘through meaning.’ One might think of Dialogue as a stream of meaning flowing among and through a group of people, out of which may emerge some new understanding, something creative. Dialogue moves beyond any one individual's understanding, to make explicit the implicit and build collective meaning and community." (See appendix C for a more complete explanation of dialogue.)

The Dialogue Groups will be formed early in the process, -mid to late August - to help develop the framework for the Symposium, Focus Groups, and Public Polling, which all occur later in the overall time table. It is expected that at least 40 to 80 citizens will be involved in the Dialogue Groups, and will be spread over three to five sub-groups. It is the intent of this process to involve as many citizens as are interested, including a broad selection from groups like the Leadership Alumni and schools, as well as a cross section of the community and ensure that they are educated on future trends and other key elements of the Visioning Process.

Each group will have at least one key facilitator and one or two co-facilitators, who will help guide the participants as they join in a dialogue. They will address several key factors to be considered in framing the Symposium and Focus Groups. The participants serve an important role in ensuring the success of the events to be held later. It is also important to note that the facilitators do not direct and control the ideas and content of the exchange of ideas. They will also have the responsibility to seed future trends, weak signals and new ideas through the use of appropriate questions. The participants will lead the discourse, and will have control over the subjects they address, and the direction they choose to take. This self-directing environment will empower the participants to recognize the importance of their role in the overall process. The participants will therefore take ownership of the visioning process, and dedicate the time and energy to see the process to a successful completion

Each group will begin by listening to each other to understand the context of the times, brain-storming potential ideas, and suggesting factors that need to be considered with each concept. The group members will look for value in what others say, and will build connections, both direct and indirect, to other related factors. The members will be encouraged to research the ideas prior to the meetings, by self-educating themselves on each subject. The visioning committee will recommend books, articles, websites, and other outside resources to participants, so everyone will have an opportunity to participate at a higher level.

One of the main benefits of the Dialogue Groups is that the ideas introduced by the individuals will be shared and molded through a collaboration of the group, which leads to the best alternatives on each issue. Some of the main issues concerning the Dialogue Groups include:

• How will the participants be recruited?
• What are the logistics in scheduling the meetings, meeting place, and any special requirements for transportation?
• What resources will be required to make the meetings effective?
• Are the participants only from Norfolk, or from a multi-county region?
• What questions do the facilitators pose in order to make the discussions innovative, pertinent to the future, and successful?
• How do we introduce transformational learning, and help the participants to find value in what others say?
• Identifying Future Trends will be a major component of the dialogue. How should the Dialogue Groups help present these future trends to the Symposium audience, and subsequently to the Focus Groups?
• The Dialogue Group meetings should be video recorded to document the progress of the groups, and to help participants who miss a meeting to catch-up on previous sessions. How do we use these videos to promote the Visioning Process, and to supplement the Symposium sessions? Can these videos be used to recruit others?
• Can these Dialogue Groups be transformed into a 2nd Enlightenment Committee to serve the Visioning Process in an on-going campaign?
• Can we effectively train some of these participants to be facilitators for the Focus Groups?
• What technology and media need to be employed to help the Dialogue Groups document their results, and do further research on their ideas? (i.e. Internet websites, blogs, laptop computers, kiosks, teleconferences, video projectors, video recorders…)
• How can public media be employed to support and promote the efforts of the Groups? (i.e. Newspaper, Radio, TV broadcasts, Websites…)
• Can we effectively employ the participants to recruit other citizens into the process?

The opportunities for shaping and growing the Dialogue Groups are enormous. These participants will probably consist of early adapters, and interested citizens, who possess a passion for making their community a better place to live. If each participant spreads the message to just five other community citizens, over 350 residents will have been informed of the Visioning Process by personal contact, which is the strongest form of communication. This personal contact alone should ensure the Symposium which follows should be well attended.

SymposiumBack to Top

Symposium - n. sym · po · si · um

1. a meeting or conference for discussion of some topic. – Webster’s II New Riverside University Dictionary

2. A social gathering at which there is free interchange of ideas. A formal meeting at which several specialists deliver short addresses on a topic or on related topics. - www.poestories.com/wordlist.php

The aim of the symposium is to introduce the concepts of future trends and transformation to the community of Norfolk in a fun, non-threatening atmosphere and to solicit input later in the form of focus groups.

The topic(s) of the symposium will be directed by the visioning committee and information that is gained from the dialogue groups, as well as polling, if possible.

A national speaker or some speaker of caliber in the area of future trends will be solicited to speak on those topics. Some ideas include: Marv Centron, president of Forecasting International; Tim Mack, president of the World’s Future Society, John Milewski, vice president of media for the Close Up Club in Washington DC, and Dr. Anne Atkinson, Atkinson and Associates. The speaker will have to be weighed on what connections need to be made for the community to progress with the process and with action plans in the future. Audience participation and cost will also have an impact on what speaker is invited.

The time line for the Symposium is late September and perhaps in conjunction with the LaVitsef celebration.

Several ideas were discussed on how the event might be best structured: 1) Have a future’s fair with contributions from the local schools, the speaker and then a social of some sort. 2) Have the keynote with an introduction of the process and a place to sign up for focus groups. 3) Have an all day event with break out groups on specific areas of interest that would later turn into the focus groups.

Considerations for the Symposium include:

• Where will the symposium be held?
• How is the symposium promoted in order to gain a wide base of participation and excitement about the visioning process?
• What sources of support and sponsorship are available – grants/foundations?
• How can seeds of transformation be laid?
• How can the focus groups be introduced for participation later?
• What technology can be used to promote and perhaps broadcast the event – webcast/simulcast?
• What connections and synergies can be found and emphasized to promote the visioning process?
• Can the event be archived for later use/presentation – online?

The symposium will be the most visible aspect of the visioning process and so should be used to the best advantage to engage the community and solicit input into the process. Potential synergies need to be investigated –website information and discussion opportunities for example - in order to sustain the momentum throughout the process and into the future.

Focus GroupsBack to Top

After the Symposium has been held, a significant number of interested citizens will have been exposed to the Visioning Process. These citizens have been presented with future trends that will affect our community, and have heard some innovative ideas on things we could do to shape our future. The Focus Groups will be an avenue for these interested citizens to share their ideas, and help work through a process for identifying, recommending and initially framing future community projects.

The goal is to attract at least 100 to 120 citizens, who will be distributed into 12 to 16 Focus Groups. Each Focus Group will address between one and three ideas that emerge from the symposium, and will participate in futures generative dialogue in discussing each subject. Two or three facilitators will work with each group to help guide the members, and ask appropriate questions in order to challenge the group’s innovative thought processes. Consistent with the initial the dialogue groups, it will be important that each member of a focus group become more familiar with future trends and weak signals so that the results of the dialogue reflects ideas and strategies that are aligned with the emerging future. (See Appendix C for more information on focus groups.)

During these discussions, the group will utilize T-bar charts, lap-top computers, video projectors, and other media technology to review and interact with the different ideas. The group members will work in a collaborative fashion, to discuss each aspect of the core ideas. All potential ideas will be documented, and no ideas will be dismissed as not having enough merit for further consideration. Once the idea-gathering segment appears to be near completion, in a broad and inclusive sense, the group will turn its focus to possible solutions, and potential community projects. Some of the questions to be addressed during this phase of the discussions include:

• What is the core idea, or project that is being suggested?
• What is the impact of future trends on the emerging issues? How will it contribute to the future success of the community?
• What are the potential advantages and disadvantages of each recommendation?
• Does the recommendation fall into the category of a “Reforming Change”, or a “Transformational Change”?
• What resources would be required to complete each project? (In broad terms, not intended to be all inclusive and detailed.)
• Would the project have a broad or narrow band of interest in the community?
• Would the project be classified as having major or minor impact on the community?
• Has a similar project been done in other parts of the world? Was it successful? What were the factors that make it successful or unsuccessful?
• When presenting the recommendation to the community, what factors would have to be considered in helping the citizens accept and welcome the idea?
• How would ranking from the Focus Group and from within the community be structured to compare similarities and differences? Which ideas or projects would seem to be the most beneficial to the community?
• During the course of discussions on these three different subjects, what aspects does the Focus Group feel should be shared with the other Focus Groups?
• Which ideas have some merit, but need further study in order to be developed into a community project?
• If an idea was deemed to have limited appeal and merit, was a description documented as to why the Focus Group discontinued pursuing the idea?
• Now that the Dialogue Groups and the Symposium are completed, what other recommendations does the Focus Group feel would be beneficial for enhancing the process?

As one might expect, the Focus Groups are perhaps the most powerful and most important step in the overall Visioning Process. The Groups will have to address all aspects of the ideas, and identify potential solutions to each issue. The recommendations for project action will have a high success rate, due to the group’s collaborative work in considering the factors that influence each project. There is a tremendous opportunity here for the community to reap some very beneficial projects.

PollingBack to Top

To gain a public consensus from the dialogue groups, symposium, and focus groups processes the Norfolk Visioning 2026 project will use different polling methods. Informal non-scientific polls will be implemented using different format and communications media (e.g., newspaper, on-line web site, write ins like emails, local colleges, high schools, service clubs, board members of non-profit and not for profit organizations, etc.). A scientific conducted poll will be implemented using a third-party organization to help gain involvement and support by public and private entities having to implement strategy and budget actions.

The visioning committee along with interested parties will draft a recommended list of questions (such as demographic, topics from focus group results). This input will be provided to a 3rd party to implement as a standalone or integrated survey with other survey questions (e.g., economic development plan). The questions will be formulated with a futures context helping to between distinguish between short-term goals and long-term trends and priorities. Surveys/polling questions will be sent to a cross-section of the community to get as broad of coverage and input as is reasonably possible (methodology is to be determined).

The results of the polling will help the visioning committee, senior advisor group and future visioning collaborators create options for near-term and long-term projects. The projects will be identified with recommended visioning action group assignments. These visioning action groups will consist of the general public and associated stake holders covering areas such as infrastructure, community, learning, and cultural and other appropriately identified areas.

In parallel to the polling process a charter will be prepared and presented to Norfolk City Council for approval. This charter creates a sustaining framework with reporting responsibility to the City Council. It is envisioned that besides a visioning committee, who is responsible for the overall process, that there will be other complimentary efforts on going. There will short-term action groups with oversight or a specific set of goals and projects, and a future’s capacity building group responsible for introducing the concepts of a future ‘s context, generative dialogue, and transformational learning concepts to the committee and visioning action groups as well as the general public. Members of these committees and groups should be recruited from the Focus Groups as well as being designated by appropriate public entities (i.e., schools, city departments, local state funded offices, etc.) and the general public. The charter will designate the appropriate membership for the visioning committee, visioning action groups, and the future visioning collaboration group.

As part of the polling process the following questions will be considered in helping the community understand the changing world we live in. Some of the main issues concerning the polling process and the visioning committee include:

• What are the logistics in preparing the survey questions and the Norfolk Visioning chartering?
• What resources will be required to make the polling effective?
• Will the surveys be available to only Norfolk residents, or from a multi-county region?
• What questions will the survey ask to make the process innovative, pertinent to the future, and successful?
• In the surveys how do we introduce transformational learning and help the participants to find value in questions being presented?
• What are the trade-offs between asking questions that are shorter term focused versus those with more long-term value?
• What criteria will be used to reduce the number of questions that will be available from the different focus groups? Assuming that not all proposed questions would be used how should candidate question be weighted for short-term versus longer-term value?
• What communications technologies should be employed to support the non-scientific as well as scientific surveys?
• How will the survey ask the individual to volunteer for a visioning action group? How will this be collected even though the individual wants to submit the survey anonymously?
• How will the results of the survey be disseminated besides being included in the Norfolk Vision 2026 project report?
• What responsibilities will be assigned to the 3rd party polling organization for preparing and presenting the results? What communications media outlets will be utilized including public media? (i.e. Newspaper, Radio, TV broadcasts, Websites…)

Final ReportBack to Top

At the end of the Visioning Process, the group will produce a final report on the process discussing the final results of what we learned from the activities undertaken throughout the process. This report will cover several aspects of the process, including, although not necessarily limited to:

1. The content of the future trends identified and the impact of those future trends discussed and developed during the process. This part of the report will be a summary of information gathered from the activities conducted during the process. Because it is expected that the process will identify trends, interest and community activities not predicted at the beginning of our activities, unfold, it is expected that the information in this portion of the report will be more than a simple compilation of activity reports. Rather, we will complete an analysis of the trends discussed, community discussion and reaction to the trends, and ideas generated from our activities for future activities and processes. Part of this discussion will focus on the relationship of Norfolk toady to the emerging trends and weak signals identified, and how participants see Norfolk’s future evolving because of these trends during the next 20 years.
2. Ideas for community activities generated from the process. It is expected that as the process unfolds, that ideas will be generated for activities that the community can participate in to position Norfolk for the changes coming in the next 20 years and beyond. The ideas may lead to the self formation of separate interest groups that would explore these ideas, and perhaps create a plan for making these ideas a reality. The report will discuss opportunities and challenges faced by the emerging interest groups. The report will also discuss how the activities identified can be supported in our ongoing visioning process, and by the community as whole, to further the culture of change in the Norfolk area.
3. An evaluation of the visioning process. This evaluation will be naturally occurring throughout the process, as the results of the individual activities are evaluated upon their completion. It will be just as important, if not more important, to complete an overall evaluation of the entire process upon its completion. Sometimes, activities that appear to be successful in terms of numbers of participants or publicity generated may be found upon analysis of the entire process to be less significant to the success of the entire process than smaller, less visible efforts at other points in the journey. For example: an idea developed in an early discussion group may lead to an idea which generates a community change activity of lasting significance, where a well attended symposium may have value in painting broad brushes of future trends for a large group in the community, but lead to little meaningful change activity after the program. The visioning group will need to assess the entire dynamic of the process to determine the value of the component parts, and how those parts build upon each other in contributing to the success of the process.
4. Plans for sustaining the Visioning Process. One of the goals of this process should be a sustained visioning effort in the Norfolk community literally in perpetuity. Change is the normalcy of the present, and will only be more pervasive in the future. This report should look for opportunities developed during this process to continue visioning activities into the future. These activities may come from successful activities conducted during the visioning process. The activities may also be found in comparing our visioning activities to other similar efforts in other communities. Through this process, we may identify opportunities for collaboration with other futures groups or processes. A plan for the future of the visioning process must remain open to new ideas coming from all sectors of our community, as well as the world as a whole, and develop processes for our community to identify and adapt to emerging trends on the horizon.

The report will be made available to all in the Norfolk community, and will hopefully serve as the catalyst for an ongoing visioning process which will keep Norfolk a vibrant and exciting community not just in 2026, but well beyond.

Promotion and Other ConsiderationsBack to Top

In order to build awareness for the process and educate the public on future issues, a well coordinated media campaign will need to be designed to synchronize all aspects of the Visioning Process.

All types of media and technology will need to be considered and utilized to the best advantage to promote a large and diverse involvement by our citizens. The following means of promotion could be used:

Promotional Brochure

Originally a tri-fold promotional brochure will be published to initiate interest in the process. The tri-fold will serve as an initial contact summary of the Visioning process and an ongoing reference.

Website

A website should be designed and launched to give community members twenty-four hour access to information about the process and a method of interaction. It will also be a valuable tool in soliciting input and capturing data for use throughout the process. Hypertext links to reading and reference materials will serve up information to interested visitors. For example, categories of links could be:

• Blogs, Vblogs, Simulcasts & Podcasts – these will provide written and visual insights into aspects of dialogue and discussion, where opinions are openly shared, and expounded upon.
• Communication Technologies – would provide insight into new methods of communication and collaboration on topics.
• Web Information Resources – various online resources for learning of community transformational concepts. These would include informational sites and institutes.
• Critical News Developments – many varied sites that provide current information on topics of concern.
• Upcoming Events – both local and worldwide.
• Scheduled On-line Chat Sessions – would help garner interest and ideas for the process.
• RSS Feeds – Individuals could contribute to a ranked list of RSS feeds that would bring the news to all. Instructions for obtaining a RSS reader and setting up feeds would facilitate information feeds.
• Community Photo Campaign – this page would highlight the best and worst of our community. Viewers could be challenged to name the location of the (un)desirable photos and to place votes on their selections and reasons.
• Internet Search Engines – A list of traditional and new web search engines would facilitate specific info gathering by an individual especially new to the idea.
• Trends and Technology links – Specific worldwide developments, behavioral and technological, that will keep all interest and focused on the future.

Newspaper Articles

Local newspapers could parallel the same information mentioned above for individuals not connected to the web. Newspaper articles are excellent at promoting the Visioning process in social gatherings of people.

Billboard

A well-placed billboard for the process would regularly remind citizens to steer the future of their community by staying involved in the process and to visiting the website.

Kiosks

Kiosks at a mall, for instance, will generate interest to those who happen by, or have some time while waiting for family or friends. Kiosks can be an excellent promotional method when set up properly.

Word of Mouth!

Sometimes the best promotion is the old fashioned way! Visits to workplaces and calls to individuals would require effort, but would be more personal.

Poster Campaign

Well-positioned posters placed around the community in many of the gathering places would catch some individuals who would otherwise slip through the cracks due to their active lifestyles away from newspapers and internet.

Radio/TV broadcasts

Radio promotions are good at reminding everyone. Everyone listens to the radio at some time during their day.

Online Messenger Alerts

Promotion of the process by this method would take the message to the millennials, who otherwise might not be captured in the process.

Seminars & Symposiums

These type of learning events would highly promote involvement in the process.

ConclusionBack to Top

An innovative means of gathering citizen input and decision making is vital in creating a sustainable community in the future. In his book, Linked, Albert-Laszlo Barabasi states, "Where do we go from here? The Answer is simple. The goal before us is to understand complexity. To achieve that, we must move beyond structure and topology and start focusing on the dynamics that take place along the links. Networks are only the skeleton of complexity, the highways for the various processes that make our world hum. The complex issues with which we are faced, in fields from communications systems, biotechnology and global economies demand a brand new framework. Now we must follow the ongoing network revolution, fitting the pieces to one another, node by node and link by link, and capturing their dynamic interplay."

Norfolk faces many challenges with geography, transportation and even local mind sets. Getting them involved and talking about future issues that will be facing the community is a start in the right direction. We believe the above visioning process will allow for input, decision making and collaboration with a broad section of the community and be a flexible and sustainable model into the future. As futurist Rick Smyre puts it “Those community organizations that are willing to challenge themselves and risk new approaches will find themselves survivors and vital in a time when many different types of organizations will be falling by the wayside. It is more than important for local communities to build capacities to be able to adapt to a true transformation of society.” (See Appendix D for suggested readings.)

Appendix ABack to Top

Trend #1: Energy Alternatives

Despite all the calls for conservation, energy consumption is still rising rapidly. Energy usage will continue to increase as additional nations join the mainstream world economy, and make energy demands similar to those in the industrialized world. The current world economy has been built in large parts by energy produced by fossil fuels, most notably oil, coal and natural gas. Higher prices are encouraging the development of alternative fuels, including ethanol and nuclear power, but many of these alternatives are at best stop gaps and supplements to the fossil fuel supply. Estimates as to the supply of readily available oil vary from 10 to 30 years dependant on the organization reporting, a short term supply in any event. The diminishing supply of oil, and the increased cost of obtaining oil due to the diminished supply and political circumstance, should spur us to support the development of an alternative energy policy. Hydrogen fuel cells, Clean Nuclear Power Plants, Natural Gas, Fuel Cells, Wind Power, LED, and advanced battery technology will lead the way in replacing large carbon dioxide producing fossil fuels such as coal and oil. Ethanol and bio-diesel, current alternatives and supplements to oil may also play a role, both from corn and soybeans but also from biomass products. For example: turning biomass, e.g., corn stover, grass, etc. into fermentable sugars and then into ethanol. A worldwide campaign to improve energy infrastructure is necessary to reduce conventional cooking and heating fires. It is now also possible to create enzymes that work thousands of times faster than their natural counterparts. Plastics may be grown on farms, in genetically engineered plants, that are also biodegradable.

In many ways, the fluctuation in gasoline prices in the past several years has given us a glimpse of the energy and transportation future if there is no alternative found in our oil powered economy. Some of these trends have been predicted in several publications over many years. In his 2002 book “The Hydrogen Economy” Jeremy Rifkin considered the estimates of many government, scientific and academic sources to estimate that the worlds supply of easily available oil may fail to meet world demand as early as 2010. While this estimate is open to some debate, it is clear that oil supplies are more than ever affected by wars, natural disasters, environmental regulations, and increasing supply demands from more and more consumers.

Northeast Nebraska has benefited in a small, but growing way from these changes as the demand for Ethanol and Soy Bio-Diesel as a supplement to and possible replacement for petroleum products increase. However, these alternatives are only part of the solution to our current oil dependence being discussed. Alternative energy sources as diverse as Hydrogen Fuel Cells, Solar Power. Wind Power, Nuclear Power, Energy from Waste Products and many other options will be part of the discussion. Some of these alternatives will require different ways of thinking about how energy is generated and distributed. As opposed to a top down distribution structure, an energy web may allow for the sharing of energy generated in individual homes, with others in the grid, reducing energy costs for all.

Transportation systems will continue to be critical to the distribution of goods and to allow for the mobility that individuals have come to expect. However, we will need to look at type of products that we will be distributing, and the markets where those products are to be sent in determining our transportation infrastructure needs. Highways will always be part of the equation, but we may also need to look at increased air cargo capabilities, air taxi services and other transportation opportunities that will serve to connect Northeast Nebraska with the remainder of the world. Communications connections, through broadband, wi-fi, and satellite sources may be as important for our interaction with the world as transportation systems.

Book: The Hydrogen Economy by Jeremy Rifkin

Links for additional discussion (some of the 51 million links on this subject found on Google):

For a comprehensive list of alternative energy web sites:
http://members.autobahn.mb.ca/~het/energy/energy.html

Energy Alternatives that Save the World:
http://home.independence.net/oleary/Energy%20Alternatives.htm

CNBC report on Alternative Energy:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12040418/

The National Hydrogen Conference:
http://www.hydrogenconference.org/

Energy Alternatives, One House at a Time:
http://realtytimes.com/rtcpages/20060427_energyalt.htm

Energy Alternatives Journal:
http://www.alternativesjournal.ca/issues/301/default.asp

Trend #2: Education

What are the future trends in education, and how will they affect our near future? Have we been watching for weak signals, and those future changes that are not yet on our radar screen? If we had the power to make our children’s and grandchildren’s future bright, wouldn’t we act on that information?

We have an opportunity to make our future bright. The key is within our grasp. If we heighten our awareness of evolving future trends, we can take proactive steps to prepare for the future which is already coming toward us. Many organizations have already identified the following trends in education:

• Workers in the future will require better education for both skilled and unskilled positions.
• Workers of the future will change careers more often due to advances in technology. These workers will require additional training, and continuous learning throughout their careers.
• Schools will have to teach students how to obtain information, and train students to employ self-learning techniques to teach themselves on discoveries and new information that is being developed and released constantly.
• Practical knowledge is being outdated in a 5 to 10 year period. Experts believe the half-life of an engineer’s knowledge today is only five years.
• E-Learning will further evolve its infrastructure, knowledge base, and relationship to students, school institutions, and workers employed in the community.
• Knowledge turnover in the professions, due to retirement and career changes, is a growing challenge that will require continuous retraining and lifelong learning.

These trends are like signals on the horizon, giving the captain of a ship an opportunity to stay the course, or change direction if warranted. Historically, the captain had the responsibility to make the decision, based on his past experiences. But suppose the storm on the horizon was unlike anything the captain had seen before? What if the storm front was constantly evolving and changing? Wouldn’t it make sense to gather input from all crew members onboard, and plot a course of action based on their thoughts and input?

The critical issue in planning today is not how to get there. The critical issue is where you want to be." Jim Taylor and Watts Wacker, The 500-Year Delta

The Industrial Age ushered in a new system of automation and manufacturing that changed almost every aspect of society, and its culture. The Knowledge Economy is still evolving, and shaping society, while the Information Age is fast approaching. It is projected that new information will be released at an unprecedented rate, with perhaps 25 to 50 times more information being released every five year period, than the preceding five year period. How will that affect our current education system? What changes should we consider for our education system?

Technology itself matters less than the changes it triggers in substance, content, and focus of schooling and school. These changes...are effective even if there is only a minimum of change in the technology of learning and teaching." Peter Drucker, The Accountable School

The world is changing in ways that dramatically alter the assumptions, beliefs, traditions and policies that previously served American citizens. Moreover, the rate of change is increasing at an astounding pace, resulting in many traditions and institutions lagging behind developments in some areas, such as technology. To anticipate change, rather than react to it, organizations are identifying trends and examining their possible implications. Rather than predicting what the future will be, trends indicate directions of change and bring focus to what the future may look like.

When we talk about education, what comes to mind? Are we using the existing K-12 public school system as our base of reference? Shouldn’t we also consider the pre-school years, College and University systems, and even training and educational requirements of business and factory workers throughout their careers? Shouldn’t we also consider the educational requirements of our retirees? For every person who can’t reset the timer on their VCR, digital clock, and those who don’t use computers or the Internet, aren’t we as a society missing an opportunity? The world is changing so fast, that we need to consider the educational requirements of every person in the community, and every person in our global economy. The opportunities for learning, as well as for teaching others, are tremendous.

Perhaps we need to start by asking ourselves some questions. Should our schools be focused on high compliance, or high achievement? Should out schools focus on “Subject knowledge”, or on “Process knowledge” (learning to learn)? Should be expect students to focus on rote learning and memorization, or on critical thinking? Should we be using Teacher-centered techniques, or Student-centered techniques? Should we be using one pace and style for all students, or different rates and styles of learning for our students?

Not long ago, Margaret Spellings, the U.S. secretary of education pointed out in Newsweek that “last year China’s schools graduated more than 600,000 engineers and India’s schools produced 350,000, compared with 70,000 in America.” Shouldn’t that be considered a trend in education? What implications does this one trend have on the future economy of America? If China and India are graduating more Engineers than America, isn’t it reasonable to believe that they are graduating more students in most other fields of study as well? What impacts will that have on the global economy, and on our community’s economy?

The good news is, its not too late! We still have time to make some changes to our thinking as it relates to education. Yes, our K-12 students need a different type of education. Our citizens in the working sector need continuing education. Those who stay at home, the unemployed, and even our retirees need continuing education. We also need to consider that we need a different type of training thatn we’ve had in the past. Simply improving our current school curriculum by 15% will not be adequate in reforming our education system. We need to transform our educational system into a medium that will be effective in training our society for tomorrow.

Where should we start? Rather than react to these future trends and plot a course of action to start now, let’s be proactive and use a collaborative approach to plan our future. It will take a little longer, but will yield better results. One way to help prepare for these collaborative discussions, is to learn more about the factors that influence education in our society. We recommend reading the websites listed below, and reading any materials relating to the future of education.

Websites

http://www.ecs.org/clearinghouse/13/27/1327.htm
“Future Trends Affecting Education” is a paper written by Dixie Griffin Good, and references to the book written by the Education Commission of the States. It's an excellent summary of the existing and future trends that will effect changes in our education system, and society.

http://www.netc.org/presentations/ncce/2002/nccenotes.pdf
“Virtual Schools: What do educational leaders need to know?” is a summary of a symposium sponsored by Northwest Educational Technology Consortium. See what some K-12 schools systems have done with their Virtual School program, in Washington , Oregon , and Alaska .

http://www.newhorizons.org/future/front_fut.html
“Transforming Education” is a series of recommended reading of articles and books regarding changes in the education system, and how we need to think about future changes affecting our society.

http://www1.worldbank.org/education/lifelong_learning/conceptual_framework.asp
“Lifelong Learning in the Global Knowledge Economy” is a website sponsored by The World Bank Group. We have to ask ourselves, are we doing enough to prepare for the future?

http://pcpli.grnp.org/index.html
The Potter County - Pennsylvania, Process Leadership Institute's website and a summary of Transformational Learning processes, and the Knowledge Democracy.

http://www.learningcircuits.org/2001/mar2001/competencies.html
“E-Learning Competencies” is a paper by Ethan S. Sanders, and is sponsored by Learning Circuits. It gives a great summary of factors to be considered in learning styles.

Trend #3: Global Economy and Internet

1. Globalization and the Internet are allowing small businesses to thrive competitively, worldwide. This trend will accelerate.
2. Continued growth of the micro-entrepreneur is supported by the increasing rapid communication systems.
3. Services are the fastest growing sector. Service industries are expected to account for virtually the entire net gain in US employment.
4. Online commerce in the US by the year 2009, only three years from now, will approach $340B.
5. Time is becoming the world’s most precious commodity. Can we market or tap into this?

Notes from the original trend listing:

1. The Internet makes it possible for small business throughout the world to compete for market share on an even footing with industry leaders. The Internet is growing logarithmically and globally. Global economy is becoming more integrated. We need to remain/become competitive-which might be more difficult for us than underdeveloped nations who have no infrastructure or monetary investment in current systems so they can jump ahead into better technology, etc.
2. What are some things we do to make Northeast Nebraska a hub?
3. Computer-related service jobs pay much more than the minimum, for workers with sound education and training. How can we have services here that compliment global society? Do we have all of the services locally available that draw active, informed people?
4. On-line commerce growth according to estimates by Forrester Research Group in Cambridge, MA. The 2004 holiday season saw $19B spent online; the best figures for the 2005 holiday season suggest it was nearly $30B (50% increase).
5. Currently we have more time than other areas of the world. Maybe add this to technology, working from where we live, and transportation access?

Supporting Facts and Articles

• In 1991, the number of new household, health, beauty, food, and beverage products totaled 15,400. In 2001, the number had more than double to a record 32,025.
• From 1950 to 2000, variability in S&P 500 stock prices increased more than tenfold. Through the decades of the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s, days on which the market fluctuated by three percent or more were rare--it happened less than twice a year. For the past two years in happened almost twice a month (Q1 2000 - Q3 2002).
• In just ten years, employment in the biotech sector has more than doubled, rising to 191,000 in 2001.
• "Biologist and engineers recently discovered the properties that enable the gecko's unsurpassed sticking power. This breakthrough opens the door to synthesizing "dry adhesive microstructures that can function underwater or even in a vacuum." (How will microbiology and nanotechnology impact our daily lives and our professional careers?)
• Lou Gerstner, former CEO of IBM, began his campaign to accelerate IBM's growth by bringing the diversity of employee opinion into play, opening communications by e-mail to every individual. (How can we as a community use communications technology and parallel processes to bring about change?)
• A detailed understanding of the full biochemical network within the cell promises to eliminate the guesswork.

Implications of Trends

Trends overlap, as do their implications. Here, we highlight four of the more important ones:

• Employees will work in more decentralized, specialized firms, and employer-employee relationships will become less standardized and more individualized.
• Slower labor force growth will encourage employers to adopt approaches to facilitate greater labor force participation among women, the elderly, and people with disabilities.
• Greater emphasis will be placed on retraining and lifelong learning as the U.S. workforce tries to stay competitive in the global marketplace and respond to technological changes.
• Future productivity growth will support rising wages and may affect the wage distribution; the tie between employment and access to fringe benefits will be weakened.”

“Rapid technological change and increased international competition spotlight the need for the workforce to be able to adapt to changing technologies and shifting product demand. Shifts in the nature of business organizations and the growing importance of knowledge-based work also favor strong non-routine, cognitive skills, such as abstract reasoning, problem-solving, communication, and collaboration. In this context, education and training becomes a continuous process throughout the life course, involving training and retraining that continue well past initial entry into the labor market. Technology-mediated learning is a promising tool for lifelong learning, both on the job and through traditional public and private education and training institutions.”

Internet as a Social Glue

Via a colleague. Internet as Social Glue, BBC reporting on Pew Research. Certainly seems to be the case by my observation. I have consulted with a small business startup in recent months, and the net is indispensable. Recall the web is only 12 years old!

... The internet has played an important role in the life decisions of 60 million Americans, research shows. Whether it be career advice, helping people through an illness or finding a new house, 45% of Americans turn to the web for help, a survey by US-based Pew Internet think-tank has found..."

• 21 million Americans use it to get additional career training
• helps, 17 million when dealing with major illness
• 17 million use it for choosing a school for a child
• 16 million use it to buy a car
• 16 million use it for a major financial decision
• 10 million use it for finding new place to live
• 8 million use it when changing job
• 7 million use it to cope with family illness.

Source: Pew Internet and American Life Project

Books

• Christopher Meyer & Stan Davis, It’s Alive, The Coming Convergence of Information, Biology, and Business
• Thomas L. Friedman, The World Is Flat
• Ray Kurzweil, The Singularity Is Near

Websites

MIT Video Library, “The World Is Flat”, Thomas L. Friedman, a 1:15 hour presentation given at MIT. http://mitworld.mit.edu/video/266/ Requires use of RealPlayer video player, http://www.real.com/

MIT World Video Index, leading authors presentations captured on video, sponsored by different MIT organizations. http://mitworld.mit.edu/video_index.php

“The Future at Work — Trends and Implications”, RAND Research Study for US Dept of Labor, Lynn Karoly and Constantijn Panis, 2004,
http://rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB5070/index1.html

Blog site, http://future.iftf.org/globalization/index.html

Advertising 2.0 , White Paper prepared by advertising executive, Paul Beelen, February 2006, Leo Burnett Santiago, Chile. http://www.paulbeelen.com/whitepaper/Advertising20.pdf

“A View from 10 Year Ago ,” industry consultant, analyst and speaker Terry Wohlers, published in " Viewpoint ", January/February 2006 issue. http://www.wohlersassociates.com/JanFeb06TCT.htm

http://www.globalvoicesonline.org/

http://future.iftf.org/information_technology/index.html

http://future.iftf.org/place_and_space/index.html

http://future.iftf.org/globalization/index.html

Trend #4: Millenials and Generations

For the first time in history there are four generation in the workforce, with four very distinctive attitudes, influences and strengths. This is due to longevity, changes in the type of work and technology.

Melding these generations together in work and society is interesting to say the least. There are many defining characteristics to generations and they can be confusing, this overview will confine itself to the more general headings:

1. Veterans, those born between 1922 and 1943 (52 million people). This cohort was born before or during World War II and their earliest experiences are associated with that world event. Some also remember the Great Depression.
2. The Baby Boomers, 1943-1960 (73.2 million people). These people were born during or after world War II and raised in an era of extreme optimism, opportunity, and progress. Boomers, for the most part, grew up in two-parent households, safe schools, job security and post-war prosperity. They represent about two-thirds of all U.S. workers. On the job, they value loyalty, respect the organizational hierarchy, and generally wait their turn for advancement.
3. Generation Xers, 1960-1980 (70.1 million people). They were born after the Boomers into a rapidly changing social climate and economic recession, including Asian competition. They grew up in two-career families with rising divorce rates, downsizing, the dawning of the high-tech age, and the information age. On the job, they can be fiercely independent, like to be in control, and want fast feedback.
4. Generation Nexters 1980-2000 (69.7 million people to date). Those born of Boomer parents and early Xers into our current high-tech, neo-optimistic times. Although the youngest workers, they represent the most technologically adept. They are fast learners and tend to be impatient.

( cf. Zemke, Raines and Filipczak, Generations at Work, 2000.)

Generational differences are playing a large factor in the development of the workforce and society. The GI Generation has had the longest impact on society having influence from WWII to the Gulf War. Baby Boomers by sheer numbers impact society. Generation X is the start of the technology curve and Millennials definitely have their own style and are shaping their own culture as they live it, which is a first in history. Also new in this time frame is the impact of global populations – during the last several decades the US population has been a major factor in global trends. No longer. As developing nations become more influential, they will have the dominant impact on trends for work and society – which are already being felt.

Because of the explosive impact of technology and diversity on work and society the “generation gap” will be a wide chasm to navigate in the future. Leadership will need to take on a different appearance as they blend and balance the strengths and weaknesses of each generation.

Books

By William Strauss and Neil Howe

• Generations: The History of America's Future, 1584 to 2069, 1992, ISBN 0688119123;
• 13th Gen: Abort, Retry, Ignore, Fail?, 1993, ISBN 0679743650;
• The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy, 1997, ISBN 055306682X;
• Millennials Rising : The Next Great Generation, 2000, ISBN 0375707190

Websites

• http://www.leadershipadvantage.com/generationsAtWork.shtml
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_generations
• http://www.gentrends.com/
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G.I._Generation
• http://www.bbhq.com/bomrgenx.htm
• http://library.thinkquest.org/23440/er.html
• http://www.generationsatwork.com/articles/millenials.htm
• http://www.wksu.org/news/features/adolescence/story/17

Trend #5: Changes in the Workplace

We are seeing a changing workplace:

• More diversity: Less one-size-fits-all as users demand a wider array of workplace devices and services
• More mobility: Companies supporting fewer and fewer traditional desktops
• More distributed access: Especially wireless
• More virtual employees: Constant change in personnel
• More activity-based computing: Changing the way people work and interact with technology, as well as altering the interchange among people, content and activities or functions
• More contextual collaboration: Collaboration capabilities built into applications; fewer standalone or pure collaboration applications
• More personalization: Tailoring of services to the needs of the end-user

On a Treo, one can have unbelievable amounts of information. As a mobile device, it can be lost in a moment. As mobility brings computing power out into the world, companies are struggling with how to manage it. You have laptops and you have smart phones. Just how do you deal with security issues?

These days, everyone has e-mail everywhere. People really like getting their e-mail on a mobile device, and it can replace the laptop in a lot of situations, though not completely. It's still very awkward to open your laptop at a moment's notice to check e-mail and other things. People like to have that immediacy. Meanwhile, laptops are expensive, and very cumbersome to administer from an IT point of view.

So IT departments are looking for systems that are cheaper—and safer—in the long term. Remote management is becoming very important. They want systems that have kill pills so if someone loses their device, the data can be erased remotely. It's very difficult to do that on a laptop today.

The future of personal computing is mobile computing. That does not mean PDAs by themselves, and it doesn't mean smart phones—these are just components of the broader mission of mobile computing. In the future, one ought to have a small personal computer that turns on instantly, that's always connected, and is simply a joy to use. We are moving in that direction.

If you really want device independence, you have to have a fast, reliable Internet connection all the time. That's the key. And it's happening now. That’s the most exciting thing going on in the mobile space. What will drive device independence more than anything else is the ubiquity of fast wireless networks. The best thing happening in mobility is the horse race between two competing ideas—3G cellular networks and Wi-Fi. This is a great battle.

There are people deploying Wi-Fi throughout every college campus, every business campus, and then it'll be towns and communities and cities, and this is going to continue. At the same time, the telecom carriers are introducing fast wireless cellular-based networks, but they want to charge a lot of money for them. And they're going to be forced to be more competitive both from a feature and a price point of view because they're going to be competing against very fast, inexpensive networks, the Wi-Fi network.

This is going to be a real boon for the consumer and for corporations. Currently there is no clear obvious winner between those two. They are going to coexist for some time.

Appendix BBack to Top

Future Trends

those topic areas that are “known” variables in the near and long-term future – Demographics is an example

Weak signals

those topic areas that are just beginning to emerge and have a chance of becoming a trend. In 1987 the internet was a weak signal.

Transformation

change that emerges from disparate ideas and from questioning underlying assumptions.

Transformational Learning

those tools that bring about transformation – future’s context; connective listening, risk taking, appropriate questions, personal evaluation and growth, etc.

Parallel processes

different projects going on simultaneously that grow different aspects of the whole.

Access points

ideas that are seeded through some common knowledge and can lead to an ah-ha moments.

Futures Generative Dialogue

dialogue around the topics of future trends – looking and listening for connection, value and questioning underlying assumptions about our perspectives.

Appendix CBack to Top

Future’s Generative Dialogue – We would like to site the works of David Bohm and William Issacs as a basis for the definition of future’s generative dialogue. Dialogue is listening for value; generative dialogue is one step beyond that to the emergence of shared ideas about issues. Future’s generative dialogue is dialogue around the topics of future trends – looking and listening for connection, value and questioning underlying assumptions about our perspectives.

• Dialogue - http://www.thedialoguegrouponline.com/whatsdialogue.html

The above link will take you to the writings of Glenna Gerard and Linda Ellinor of The Dialogue Group. We hope it will be helpful in your exploration of dialogue. Please feel free to copy and distribute it as long as you reference the source appropriately and provide contact information for The Dialogue Group. Thank you. Copyright, The Dialogue Group.

Appendix D - Suggested ReadingBack to Top

• The World is Flat : A Brief History of the 21 st Century by Thomas Friedman
• It's Alive : The Coming Convergence of Information, Biology, and Business by Christopher Meyer and Stan Davis
• A Whole New Mind : Moving from the Information Age to the Conceptual Age by Daniel Pink
• The Cheating Culture : Why More Americans are Doing Wrong to Get Ahead by David Callahan
• Linked : How Everything is Connected to Everything Else and What It Means by Albert-Laszlo Barabasi
• The Hydrogen Economy by Jeremy Rifkin
• The End of Oil : On the Edge of a Perilous New World by Paul Roberts.
• Freakonomics : A Rouge Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything by Steven D. Levitt, Stephen J. Dubner
• Blink : The Power of Thinking Without Thinking: Malcolm Gladwell
• Millennials Rising : The Next Great Generation by Neil Howe and William Strauss
• Tipping Point : How Little Things Make a Big Difference by Malcolm Gladwell
• Leadership and the New Science : Discovering Order in a Chaotic World Revised by Margaret Wheatley
• Our Final Hour by Martin Rees.
• Fantastic Voyage : Live Long Enough to Live Forever  by Ray Kurzweil and Terry Grossman
• The New Brain : How the Modern Age Is Rewiring Your Mind by Richard Restak
• Planet Broadband by Rouzbeh Yassini
• Smart Mobs : The Next Social Revolution
• From Empire to Community : A New Approach to International RelationS by Amitai Etzioni
• Radical Middle : The Politics We Need Now by Mark Satin
• Digital Soul : Intelligent Machines and Human Values by Thomas M. Georges
• Food, Inc .: Mendel to Monsanto—The Promises and Perils of the Biotech Harvest by Peter Pringle
• The Future of Life by Edward O. Wilson
• The Genomics Age : How DNA Technology is Transforming the Way We Live and Who We Are by Gina Smith
• Tomorrow Now : Envisioning the Next Fifty Years by Bruce Sterling
• VIVO [Voice-In/ Voice Out] : The Coming Age of Talking Computers by William Crossman
• A World Growing Old by Jeremy Seabrook
• The Millennium Matrix : Reclaiming the Past, Reframing the Future of the Church by M. Rex Miller
• The Next Enlightenment : Integrating East and West in a New Vision of Human Evolution by Walter Truett Anderson
• Our Posthuman Future : Consequences of the Biotechnology Revolution by Francis Fukuyama
• Working in a 24/7 Economy : Challenges for American Families by Harriet B. Presser
• The Best Jobs for the 21st Century (Third Edition) by Ronald L. Krannich and Caryl Rae Krannich
• The Future of Success by Robert B. Reich
• Impending Crisis: Too Many Jobs, Too Few People by Roger E. Herman, Thomas G. Olivo, and Joyce L. Gioia
• When Generations Collide by Lynne C. Lancaster and David Stillman
• The Coming Collapse of China by Gordon G. Chang
• The End of World Population Growth in the 21st Century : New Challenges for Human Capital Formation and Sustainable Development edited by Wolfgang Lutz, Warren C. Sanderson, and Sergei Scherbov
• The European Dream : How Europe 's Vision of the Future Is Quietly Eclipsing the American Dream by Jeremy Rifkin
• The 2030 Spike : Countdown to Global Catastrophe by Colin Mason